THE UNSTOPPABLE ANDROID

The latest figures of Android adoption indicates that
every day 550,000 devices are activated. This is an
amazing number as it doesn’t deal with shipments
nor sales. A device activation means somewhere
there is a new Android device in a user’s hands that
is turned on for use. The significance of activation is
that there is a Google Account behind it, required for
activation.
While Google has not rushed into the content
business with Android, the numbers would have me
believe that is going to happen. A fair percentage of
those Google Accounts behind device activations
have credit cards (or the equivalent) behind them
with Google Checkout, and as Apple and Amazon
know that is a significant advantage in the online
retail world.
What makes Google’s achievement in Android so
unusual is it has happened without consumer
awareness. Many mainstream customers buying
Android phones have little understanding about the
platform, as the purchase was made based on the
OEM behind the phone or handset marketing.
Millions of buyers are not buying an Android phone,
rather a Motorola Droid or Samsung Galaxy device.
This is actually good for Google as competitors to
Android in the mobile space must compete with a
several companies and dozens of handsets, not just
the platform.
Android also has the tight integration with Google
services going for it. As my esteemeddebate
colleague Larry Dignan pointed out:
If I had to pick one, I’d say the loyalty lies with
Google services. Can anyone really tell the
difference between HTC, Motorola or Samsung?
Aside from annoying overlays and UI tweaks,
they’re all the same to me.
Tablets have not been the big thing that Google
hoped, and that doesn’t surprise me. I’m not sure
there is a sizable non-iPad tablet market as buyers
haven’t demonstrated there is one through sales. I
don’t think that’s a concern for Google; the
smartphone market has proven so huge for Android
that Google could drop tablets altogether with little
negative impact.
While Android is often compared by analysts to iOS,
the truth is both platforms have done well side-by-
side. Sure they are competing but fact is both are
doing well in spite of the other. The true competition
for Android (iOS too) is going to come from Amazon
once the Kindle Fire hits the market.
The Kindle Fire is based on Android, but it doesn’t
look like it and more importantly it’s not going to be
a selling point. Millions are going to buy the Fire
because it is from Amazon, not based on Android.
The cheap price is going to ratchet adoption in the
market up to fevered pitch, as mainstream
consumers see them in action.
This will impact Apple and the iPad more than
Google and Android, as the tablet market is not a big
part of the Android ecosystem. I believe Google
could simply drop tablets from Android with little
impact, and may eventually due so once Amazon
joins the fray.
The other big threat to Android longevity in the
market is the ongoing litigation with Apple for patent
infringements. Samsung in particular has been the
butt of Apple’s legal team, and court after court has
ruled Samsung’s Android products infringe on Apple’s
patents. This threat is looming large over not only
Samsung but all Android partners. If anything can
stop the massive Android army, the lawyers may be
it. This will take some time to happen, so Android
should be safe for the near term.
Android is a massive force in the smartphone space,
and that isn’t going to change any time soon. It is
worth watching over time to see how it stands up to
the competition once Ice Cream Sandwich comes to
market, but it is safe for now.